THE PREDICTION EXPERIMENT

Let the results decide.

Eight frozen agent profiles and two frequency models face uniform random selection. Predictions are locked before the draw. The endpoint and success threshold stay fixed.

Collector health

Collector Healthy Last success: 2026-09-26 04:30 UTC
Backup Recent backup 2026-09-26 03:42 UTC
Independent timestamps Verified 4 verified · 0 pending commitments

Health checked: 2026-09-26 04:31 UTC. A heartbeat or successful collection older than 15 minutes is stale. 0 consecutive failures; 0 active alerts.

Result sourceLast successful fetchLatest published drawFetch status
NY Numbers2026-09-26 04:30 UTC2026-09-24 eveningRecent
NY Win 42026-09-26 04:30 UTC2026-09-24 eveningRecent

Verified timestamp receipts provide independent evidence that a commitment existed by the authority's stated time. They rely on trust in that authority and its clock. They do not prove predictive skill or guarantee a winning ticket. Pending receipts are not yet verified.

Running

Snapshot: 2026-09-26 04:30 UTC. All times below are UTC.

4of 400 draws committed
0draws scored
0missed commitments
0protocol issues

The fixed finish line

Started 2026-09-26 03:42 UTC. Endpoint: 2027-01-04 03:42 UTC. Outstanding results are due by 2027-01-11 03:42 UTC.

At the endpoint, each model and session needs cumulative log evidence of at least 6.684612 (e-value 800.0) across 40 planned comparisons.

Every scheduled draw must be committed on time, dated by an independent timestamp receipt before its deadline, and scored. Missing commitments, missing receipts or unresolved outcomes make the experiment inconclusive. Interim scores do not declare a winner or change the rules.

Registered code: tag prediction-v2-20260926b, commit 4a2bd287f3cf.

Locked predictions

NY Numbers · midday

2026-09-26 midday · Upcoming

Draw: 2026-09-26 18:30 UTC
Lock deadline: 2026-09-26 18:00 UTC
Committed: 2026-09-26 03:42 UTC
Training known through: 2026-09-24 midday

Agent / modelTicket
Axiom427
Blaze964
Cipher108
Echo182
Frost841
Joker627
Maverick390
Sage485
Frequency985
Recent frequency025
Uniform random218

NY Win 4 · midday

2026-09-26 midday · Upcoming

Draw: 2026-09-26 18:30 UTC
Lock deadline: 2026-09-26 18:00 UTC
Committed: 2026-09-26 03:42 UTC
Training known through: 2026-09-24 midday

Agent / modelTicket
Axiom6702
Blaze4716
Cipher2683
Echo6283
Frost6302
Joker5083
Maverick9018
Sage8623
Frequency1380
Recent frequency1404
Uniform random1298

NY Numbers · evening

2026-09-26 evening · Upcoming

Draw: 2026-09-27 02:30 UTC
Lock deadline: 2026-09-27 02:00 UTC
Committed: 2026-09-26 03:42 UTC
Training known through: 2026-09-24 evening

Agent / modelTicket
Axiom269
Blaze167
Cipher527
Echo051
Frost107
Joker906
Maverick631
Sage152
Frequency582
Recent frequency051
Uniform random279

NY Win 4 · evening

2026-09-26 evening · Upcoming

Draw: 2026-09-27 02:30 UTC
Lock deadline: 2026-09-27 02:00 UTC
Committed: 2026-09-26 03:42 UTC
Training known through: 2026-09-24 evening

Agent / modelTicket
Axiom6497
Blaze6502
Cipher6540
Echo4198
Frost9850
Joker7284
Maverick1706
Sage4708
Frequency1649
Recent frequency5436
Uniform random9372

Official results

No draw has been scored yet.

Evidence against uniform selection

Positive log evidence favors the model; negative values favor uniform selection. Exact ticket hits and matched positions are descriptive, not the success test.

StreamAgent / modelDrawsLog evidenceMean log gainExact hitsPosition hitsEndpoint signal
NY Numbers · eveningUniform random0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Numbers · eveningFrequency0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Numbers · eveningRecent frequency0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Numbers · eveningBlaze0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Numbers · eveningFrost0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Numbers · eveningCipher0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Numbers · eveningSage0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Numbers · eveningJoker0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Numbers · eveningEcho0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Numbers · eveningAxiom0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Numbers · eveningMaverick0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Numbers · middayUniform random0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Numbers · middayFrequency0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Numbers · middayRecent frequency0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Numbers · middayBlaze0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Numbers · middayFrost0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Numbers · middayCipher0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Numbers · middaySage0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Numbers · middayJoker0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Numbers · middayEcho0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Numbers · middayAxiom0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Numbers · middayMaverick0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Win 4 · eveningUniform random0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Win 4 · eveningFrequency0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Win 4 · eveningRecent frequency0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Win 4 · eveningBlaze0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Win 4 · eveningFrost0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Win 4 · eveningCipher0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Win 4 · eveningSage0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Win 4 · eveningJoker0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Win 4 · eveningEcho0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Win 4 · eveningAxiom0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Win 4 · eveningMaverick0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Win 4 · middayUniform random0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Win 4 · middayFrequency0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Win 4 · middayRecent frequency0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Win 4 · middayBlaze0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Win 4 · middayFrost0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Win 4 · middayCipher0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Win 4 · middaySage0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Win 4 · middayJoker0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Win 4 · middayEcho0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Win 4 · middayAxiom0+0.0000—00None declared
NY Win 4 · middayMaverick0+0.0000—00None declared

Agent scores use a fixed probability distribution centered on each locked ticket, not an agent's claimed confidence. These frozen profiles are separate from the evolving league. No automatic promotion occurs.